[The Weekly Wrap] Fed, BoE Hold, Big Tech Earnings Rattle

If you blinked this week, you missed a lot. This weekly market recap covers a five-day stretch where the Fed rate decision and the Bank of England rate decision landed within a day of each other, US growth data came in soft, and four of the world’s largest tech companies reported earnings that moved trillions of dollars in market value.

Prices below are as of Friday 31 July 2026 (GMT+8) unless stated otherwise. This is not financial advice.

Key Points

• The Fed rate decision was a 9-3 hold at 3.50 to 3.75%, the fifth straight hold this year; the Bank of England rate decision the next day was a closer 6-3 hold at 3.75%.
• US second-quarter GDP grew at an annualised 1.5%, well below the 2.1% consensus, as a wider trade deficit offset stronger consumer spending.
• Alphabet, Meta, Microsoft, Apple and Amazon reported this week in one of the busiest big tech earnings stretches on record. Microsoft’s results triggered the largest single-day market-value increase in stock market history.
• Gold price today sits near $4,100 an ounce, supported by a weaker US dollar and the Middle East conflict, on track for its first monthly gain in five months.

Two central banks, one very split mood

Let’s start with the headline event. The Fed rate decision landed on 29 July: the Federal Open Market Committee voted 9-3 to hold the federal funds rate at 3.50 to 3.75%, the fifth straight hold this year.^[1] Three regional presidents, Beth Hammack, Neel Kashkari and Lorie Logan, dissented in favour of a hike, the first time since 2016 three policymakers have pushed the same way against the majority.^[2]

The Committee described activity as expanding at a solid pace, “despite elevated uncertainty that owes, in part, to the conflict in the Middle East.”^[1] Chair Kevin Warsh did not sugar-coat the debate: “I asked for a good family fight, and I got one.”^[3] The next FOMC decision is 15 to 16 September. Track ongoing coverage under Federal Reserve news.

Barely 24 hours later, the Bank of England rate decision arrived with an even tighter split: the Monetary Policy Committee held Bank Rate at 3.75% on a 6-3 vote, wider than the 7-2 split economists polled by Reuters had generally expected.^[4] Megan Greene, Catherine Mann and Huw Pill voted for a rise to 4.00%, with dissenters rising from two at June’s meeting to three at this one.^[5] The Bank’s Monetary Policy Report flagged that the Middle East conflict has disrupted energy supply and pushed up costs, with inflation now projected to peak near 3.2% in the fourth quarter.^[6] Governor Andrew Bailey hosed down hike talk, saying the Bank had “taken a decision today to leave bank rate unchanged, and that is the relevant conclusion.”^[7] Sterling firmed modestly afterwards. Follow interest rate news and GBPUSD news for how this plays out.

US growth cools off, and not in the way anyone wanted

The Bureau of Economic Analysis’ advance estimate, released 30 July, showed US GDP growing at an annualised 1.5% in the second quarter, down from 2.1% in the first quarter and well short of the 2.1% pace economists polled by Reuters had forecast.^[8][9]

The BEA attributed the gain to consumer spending, investment and exports, partly offset by lower government spending, while imports, which subtract from GDP, also rose.^[8] The wider trade deficit was linked in part to imports tied to ongoing AI infrastructure build-out.^[10] Markets are pricing a Fed that stays data-dependent into September. More context sits under GDP news.

Big tech earnings stole the show for equity indices

This was, without exaggeration, the busiest week of the earnings season. Alphabet, Meta, Microsoft, Apple and Amazon, worth well over $12 trillion combined, all reported within days of each other.^[11] Alphabet set an uneasy tone early on: shares fell more than 7% after the company raised 2026 capex guidance to as much as $205 billion and posted negative free cash flow for the first time since its 2004 listing.^[12] Meta followed a similar script: revenue of $60.80 billion beat the $60.22 billion consensus and grew 27% year-on-year, yet shares still fell on questions over whether the spending is generating matching returns.^[13]

Microsoft told a different story. Azure growth accelerated to 43%, Copilot seats passed 30 million, and Azure revenue crossed $100 billion for the first time; the stock’s 15.5% single-day gain was the largest single-day increase in market value in stock market history.^[14] Apple and Amazon rounded out the week on Thursday, both beating estimates, with Amazon shares advancing roughly 3.9% in early reaction.^[14]

Across Alphabet, Meta, Microsoft and Amazon, 2026 capex is now projected near $725 billion combined, a 77% increase on the prior year, and that scale of spending is exactly what has been driving swings on NAS100 news and SP500 news: the market rewarded Microsoft’s delivery and punished the step-up in spending elsewhere. More detail sits under Apple stock news, Amazon stock news and earnings news today.

Gold, the dollar and oil had their own story to tell

Away from equities, gold rallied hard Wednesday and Thursday, adding roughly 2% as the dollar sold off on softer-than-expected Q2 GDP data and reports Japan had again intervened to support the yen, closing above $4,100 an ounce Thursday.^[15] That partly reversed Friday: the dollar rebounded on fresh US-Iran tensions and month-end flows, and gold price today is struggling to hold $4,100, giving back some of the week’s gains.^[16]

Even so, gold remains on track for a monthly gain of more than 2% in July, its first monthly advance in five months.^[17] It is a tug-of-war worth watching under XAUUSD news and USDX news, and Vantage’s primer on what the US Dollar Index measures is a useful refresher on how USDX and gold typically move against each other.

Oil told a similarly choppy story. The Vantage USOUSD CFD (WTI) traded near $85.98 and the Vantage UKOUSD CFD (Brent) near $91.25 as of 30 July, both well clear of the 28 July lows, after prices slid on hopes the Strait of Hormuz standoff was cooling, then rebounded within 48 hours as renewed Middle East tensions, including reports of fresh military action involving Iran, revived supply-disruption concerns.^[18] Coverage continues under WTI crude oil news and Brent crude oil news.

What to watch next week

No rest for the data-hungry. The calendar into the first full week of August follows straight on from this week’s central bank decisions:

• ISM Manufacturing and Services PMI, week of 3 to 7 August 2026: The first US business-activity readings for July since the Fed’s hold, an early signal on whether the Q2 slowdown is continuing.
• Nonfarm Payrolls, 7 August 2026: The US jobs report, read alongside the unemployment rate for signs of labour market cooling.
• Second Q2 GDP estimate, 26 August 2026: The BEA revises the 1.5% advance figure, with the trade deficit likely to draw attention.
• Middle East developments, ongoing: A live catalyst for oil, gold and safe-haven currency flows.
• Next central bank decisions, 15-16 September 2026 (Fed), 17 September 2026 (BoE): Roughly seven weeks for markets to reprice expectations.

Follow NFP news and CPI news for the next instalments of this weekly market analysis series, since both prints tend to move USD pairs, gold and equity indices in a hurry.

On risk management: two central bank decisions and five major earnings reports landed inside four trading days this week. Market participants often monitor Stop Loss placement more closely around this kind of event density, since gaps and slippage risk tend to rise when releases cluster together.

Leverage remains a double-edged tool in weeks like this one, able to amplify both the upside and downside of a move around scheduled events. Position sizing relative to account equity is worth revisiting ahead of the Nonfarm Payrolls release and continued Middle East headline risk.

RISK WARNING: CFDs are complex financial instruments and carry a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. You should ensure you fully understand the risks involved and carefully consider whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money before trading.

Disclaimer: The information is provided for educational purposes only and doesn’t take into account your personal objectives, financial circumstances, or needs. It does not constitute investment advice. We encourage you to seek independent advice if necessary. The information has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of any information contained within. This material may contain historical or past performance figures and should not be relied on. Furthermore estimates, forward-looking statements, and forecasts cannot be guaranteed. The information on this site and the products and services offered are not intended for distribution to any person in any country or jurisdiction where such distribution or use would be contrary to local law or regulation.

References

[1] “Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement – Federal Reserve” https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260729a.htm Accessed on 31 July 2026.

[2] “Fed rate decision July 2026: Divided Fed holds interest rates steady – CNBC” https://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/29/fed-rate-decision-july-2026.html Accessed on 31 July 2026.

[3] “Fed meeting recap: July 2026 – CNBC” https://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/29/fed-meeting-today-live-updates.html Accessed on 31 July 2026.

[4] “Bank of England keeps UK rates on hold but more back hike – RTE” https://www.rte.ie/news/business/2026/0730/1585799-bank-of-england-rate-decision/ Accessed on 31 July 2026.

[5] “Bailey Plays Down Rate Hikes After Bank of England Holds – Bloomberg” https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-07-30/boe-holds-rates-in-split-vote-as-war-clouds-inflation-outlook Accessed on 31 July 2026.

[6] “Interest rates and Bank Rate: our latest decision – Bank of England” https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy/the-interest-rate-bank-rate Accessed on 31 July 2026.

[7] “Bank of England policymakers set out views on rates outlook after split vote – Reuters via Yahoo Finance” https://finance.yahoo.com/economy/policy/articles/quotes-bank-england-policymakers-set-110912159.html Accessed on 31 July 2026.

[8] “GDP (Advance Estimate), 2nd Quarter 2026 – US Bureau of Economic Analysis” https://www.bea.gov/news/2026/gdp-advance-estimate-2nd-quarter-2026 Accessed on 31 July 2026.

[9] “US economic growth slowed unexpectedly in the second quarter – NBC News” https://www.nbcnews.com/business/economy/gdp-slowed-second-quarter-rcna589992 Accessed on 31 July 2026.

[10] “GDP rose by 1.5% in 2Q, lower than predicted – UPI” https://www.upi.com/Top_News/US/2026/07/30/gdp-rose-2q-2026/7311785424728/ Accessed on 31 July 2026.

[11] “Big Tech Earnings Week: Can AI Spending Finally Deliver Returns? – Benzinga” https://www.benzinga.com/Opinion/26/07/60738619/apple-microsoft-meta-amazon-earnings-why-the-next-48-hours-could-redefine-the-ai-trade Accessed on 31 July 2026.

[12] “Big Tech earnings slam into a market in revolt over AI spending – Fortune” https://fortune.com/2026/07/26/big-tech-earnings-meta-microsoft-apple-amazon-market-revolt-ai-spending/ Accessed on 31 July 2026.

[13] “Earnings calendar peaks this week with Meta, Microsoft, Apple reporting” https://eciks.org/16963-earnings-calendar-meta-microsoft-apple Accessed on 31 July 2026.

[14] “Tech stocks today: Microsoft makes market history, Apple and Amazon beat on earnings – Yahoo Finance” https://finance.yahoo.com/technology/live/tech-stocks-today-big-tech-earnings-134611080.html Accessed on 31 July 2026.

[15] “Gold climbs on weaker dollar as Fed holds rates – Trading Economics” https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/gold Accessed on 31 July 2026.

[16] “Gold drifts lower as Fed hike bets, US-Iran tensions lift USD – FXStreet” https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gold-drifts-lower-as-usd-recovers-amid-fed-hike-bets-and-geopolitical-tensions-202607310355 Accessed on 31 July 2026.

[17] “Gold – Price – Chart – Historical Data – News – Trading Economics” https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/gold Accessed on 31 July 2026.

[18] “WTI, Brent Crude Oil Price Today: Mideast Tensions Lift Oil – Vantage Markets” https://vantagemarektsdev.canglankeji.com/market-analysis/ukousd-usousd-crude-oil-news-today-wti-brent-iran-strikes-july-30-2026/ Accessed on 31 July 2026.