[DAILY TRADING] AUDUSD Analysis 11 August 2026 — Aussie Holds Near 0.7055 Ahead of RBA Verdict

AUD/USD is holding its breath. As of this AUDUSD forecast‘s cut-off, compiled at 03:14 UTC (11:14 GMT+8) on 11 August 2026, the Vantage AUDUSD CFD traded at 0.70555, wedged almost exactly on its 50-period moving average. However you write it, AUD/USD, AUD to USD, AUD USD, USD AUD, or AUD v USD, the currency forecast lands in a few hours: the RBA hands down its cash rate call at 2:30pm AEST, with US CPI following tomorrow. Two heavyweight catalysts, one tight range.

Charts are indicative and from TradingView. This is not financial advice.

Key Points

• Cash rate widely expected to hold at 4.35% at 2:30pm AEST today, after softer June-quarter inflation.
• Pair still holding most of Friday’s spike from a surprise US jobs miss; US CPI lands tomorrow, 12 August.
• Price sits in a tight squeeze between its 50-period MA (0.70554) and 200-period MA (0.70572).

What the AUDUSD chart is showing

Zoom into the 15-minute AUDUSD TradingView chart and the AUDUSD trend tells a clean before-and-after story. Price drifted down from around 0.7060 on 5 August to a swing low near 0.7025 in the early hours of 7 August, then a single vertical candle carried it from about 0.7040 to a session high near 0.7078, coinciding with Friday’s US jobs report. From there, AUD/USD held a 0.7050 to 0.7075 band through the quiet weekend and into Monday, drifting back toward today’s 0.70555.

Price now sits almost exactly on the 50-period moving average (0.70554) and just under the 200-period moving average (0.70572), a tight cluster capping the last few candles. The RSI (14) reads 47.01, below its RSI moving-average overlay at 52.19, per the TradingView setup used for this analysis. Momentum has cooled from an overbought spike above 80 on 7 August to a near-neutral reading, consistent with consolidation. Volume on the Vantage CFD feed printed 1.17K on the latest candle, well below the spike bar, consistent with reduced activity ahead of the catalysts.

The RBA decision traders are watching today

The Reserve Bank of Australia‘s cash rate target has stood at 4.35% since 17 June 2026, after three increases earlier this year, with the Board’s next call due at 2:30pm AEST (12:30 GMT+8) today¹. June-quarter inflation released on 29 July came in softer, with headline CPI at 3.8% (down from 4.0%) and trimmed mean at 3.6% (unchanged)². Markets were broadly expecting a hold, not a fourth hike. The RBA has kept the possibility of further tightening open if inflationary pressures remain persistent.

Markets are broadly positioned for no change. What actually moves AUD/USD from here is the tone: the Statement on Monetary Policy and Governor Michele Bullock’s press conference carry more weight than the headline rate. A hold with hawkish language tends to keep the Aussie supported; a hold with softer language could ease the pressure the other way. Either way, the AUD USD forecast could look different by this afternoon.

The US side of the ledger

Friday’s jobs report did the damage on the other side of this pair. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that nonfarm payrolls fell by 23,000 in July, against a Reuters poll that had looked for a gain near 80,000³. Unemployment eased to 4.1% from 4.2%, though the drop came mostly from a shrinking labour force, and wage growth cooled to 3.2% year over year, the smallest annual gain since May 2021⁴.

That landed a week after the Fed‘s FOMC voted 9 to 3 to hold its benchmark rate on 29 July, with three officials dissenting in favour of a 25bp hike⁵. A jobs miss of that size takes hawkish edge off the dollar, a big part of why AUD/USD found room to run on Friday. US CPI data for July is due 12 August⁶, deciding how much of that dollar softness survives the week.

Levels to watch and risk framing

The table below covers the zones traders are watching on the AUDUSD chart. Reference levels, not trade signals.

Table 1: Key AUDUSD reference levels as of 03:14 UTC, 11 August 2026. Source: the TradingView setup used for this analysis and the Vantage AUDUSD CFD feed. Indicative only.

With the RBA decision landing within hours of this cut-off and US CPI due tomorrow, AUD/USD sits at the intersection of two genuine catalysts inside a single day. Both can produce outsized moves in AUD/USD, so treat the usual range with some suspicion today.

A Stop Loss set too tightly around the recent consolidation range of 0.7050 to 0.7075 risks getting clipped by pre-announcement noise rather than a real change in trend. Stop Loss placement helps define where the trade thesis is invalidated, while position size determines how much account equity is at risk if that level is reached, worth keeping the wider 0.7025 to 0.7078 band in mind.

Leverage on AUDUSD CFDs cuts both ways, and it can turn a routine RBA session into a much bigger swing in account equity than the headline move suggests. Position sizing relative to account equity, rather than the leverage ratio alone, helps determine how much today’s volatility can affect account equity, worth a second look before the RBA statement and tomorrow’s inflation print.

RISK WARNING: CFDs are complex financial instruments and carry a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. You should ensure you fully understand the risks involved and carefully consider whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money before trading.

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References

[1] “Cash Rate Target” – Reserve Bank of Australia. https://www.rba.gov.au/statistics/cash-rate/ Accessed on 11 August 2026.

[2] “CPI rose 3.8% in the year to June 2026” – Australian Bureau of Statistics. https://www.abs.gov.au/media-centre/media-releases/cpi-rose-38-year-june-2026 Accessed on 11 August 2026.

[3] “US nonfarm payrolls fall in July; unemployment rate eases to 4.1% – Reuters” https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-nonfarm-payrolls-fall-july-124023322.html Accessed on 11 August 2026.

[4] “Employment Situation Summary – July 2026” – US Bureau of Labor Statistics. https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm Accessed on 11 August 2026.

[5] “Jobs report July 2026” – CNBC. https://www.cnbc.com/2026/08/07/jobs-report-july-2026.html Accessed on 11 August 2026.

[6] “Consumer Price Index News Release” – US Bureau of Labor Statistics. https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm Accessed on 11 August 2026.

[7] “AUDUSD Chart” – TradingView. https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/FX-AUDUSD/ Accessed on 11 August 2026.