[DAILY TRADING] EURUSD Analysis 3 August 2026 — Euro Holds Near 1.1530 After Fed’s Divided Hold and a Growth Surprise

EUR/USD spent last week getting pulled between two central banks, and Monday opens with a simple question: whether the euro can extend its recent gains. The Vantage EURUSD CFD traded near 1.15318 as of 10:09 (GMT+8) on 3 August 2026, a touch below the multi-week high it touched days earlier. All levels below are referenced to that cut-off.

In short: the Fed held rates despite three policymakers wanting a hike, and the Eurozone economy then posted its best quarter in over a year. That combination lit a fire under EUR/USD in the back half of last week. Monday opens with the pair holding just above both its 50-period and 200-period moving averages, waiting on the next US data point.

This EUR/USD forecast reads the chart and the macro story behind it. It does not call the trade.

What the EURUSD chart is showing

On the 15-minute chart used for this analysis, EURUSD opened the current candle at 1.15322, ranged between 1.15333 and 1.15309, and closed at 1.15318, a decline of 0.00005, or 0.00%, on the Vantage EURUSD CFD feed.

Zoom out and the picture is a sharp late-July rally that has since paused for breath. The pair spent late July going nowhere in particular near 1.1380 to 1.1400, then a strong late-July advance carried it toward the 1.1560 area by the start of this week. Price has since handed back a slice of that advance, settling in the low 1.1530s.

EURUSD is still trading above both its 50-period moving average, at 1.15028, and its 200-period moving average, at 1.15273. The 14-period RSI reads 44.84, trailing its own moving average of 54.65, both attributed to the TradingView setup used for this analysis. RSI dipping under the 50-line while price still holds above both moving averages is an ordinary pattern after a sharp move: momentum is cooling faster than price is falling, which reads more like a pause than a reversal.

What’s driving EUR/USD this week

Two central bank stories set up the current range. The Federal Reserve held its benchmark rate at 3.50%–3.75% on 29 July 2026, in a 9-3 vote.^[1] Three regional presidents, Beth Hammack, Neel Kashkari and Lorie Logan, dissented in favour of a hike, one of the more divided votes in years.^[1,5] Despite the hawkish dissents, investors focused on the Fed’s decision to leave rates unchanged, contributing to initial US dollar weakness in the hours after.

Attention then shifted toward the euro. Eurozone GDP grew 0.4% quarter-on-quarter in the second quarter, beating expectations of 0.2% and marking the bloc’s strongest quarterly expansion in over a year.^[2,6] Annual growth accelerated to 1.0%, well above the 0.5% forecast.^[2] The European Central Bank had already held its deposit rate at 2.25% on 23 July 2026, having raised it from 2.00% in June, its first rate increase since 2023.^[3] Eurozone inflation running at 2.9% year-on-year in July keeps a further ECB move on the table.^[4]

Today brings the first major US data point since the Fed decision. The ISM Manufacturing PMI, due later on 3 August 2026, is the scheduled catalyst markets are watching for a read on the US economy outside the jobs market.^[7] A firmer print could support the dollar and cap the euro’s advance; a softer one leaves the current dollar-negative tone intact.

EURUSD levels to watch

The table below covers the zone traders are watching on EUR/USD. These are reference levels, not trade signals.

Pair	Support	Resistance	What’s Happening
EURUSD	1.15028 (50-period MA) / 1.1440-1.1460	1.1555-1.1560 / 1.1580-1.1590	Consolidating just above its moving averages after last week’s rally

Table 1: Key levels as of 10:09 (GMT+8), 3 August 2026. Source: the TradingView setup used for this analysis. Indicative only.

• EUR/USD holds above both moving averages here, a setup that looks more like a pause than a reversal. Immediate resistance sits around last week’s highs near 1.1555-1.1560, with a broader resistance zone extending toward 1.1580-1.1590.
• A sustained break below the 200-period moving average near 1.15273 would put the 1.1440-1.1460 zone, tested during last week’s sharp intraday dip, back in view.

What to watch this week and beyond

• ISM Manufacturing PMI, 3 August 2026: the first US data point since the Fed decision, and the main scheduled catalyst for dollar pairs this session.^[7]
• US jobs report, 7 August 2026: June’s payrolls rose by just 57,000, well below expectations, and Friday’s July print is the next checkpoint.^[8]
• Next FOMC meeting, 15-16 September 2026: Chair Kevin Warsh’s next scheduled press conference, with Jackson Hole commentary in between.
  • ECB’s next policy meeting, September: markets are weighing whether elevated energy-driven inflation puts another hike back on the table.^[3,4]

EUR/USD has reacted sharply to every headline lately, so intraday ranges have been wider than usual. These technical levels, the 1.15028 support and the 1.1555-1.1590 resistance band, often become areas of increased market attention around major economic releases like today’s PMI print, where Stop Loss levels and overall exposure are commonly reviewed.

Any position in EUR/USD carries leverage, a double-edged tool that can magnify gains and losses alike. Position sizing is worth a second look ahead of Friday’s US jobs report.

For a broader primer, see this guide to trading EUR/USD, or Vantage’s wider EURUSD news, Federal Reserve News and ECB coverage.

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References

[1] “Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement” – Federal Reserve. https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260729a.htm Accessed on 3 August 2026.

[2] “GDP up by 0.4% in the euro area and by 0.5% in the EU” – Eurostat. https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/products-euro-indicators/w/2-30072026-ap Accessed on 3 August 2026.

[3] “Monetary policy decisions, 23 July 2026” – European Central Bank. https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2026/html/ecb.mp260723~29f24d99bc.en.html Accessed on 3 August 2026.

[4] “Euro area annual inflation up to 2.9%” – Eurostat. https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/products-euro-indicators/w/2-31072026-ap Accessed on 3 August 2026.

[5] “Fed rate decision July 2026: Divided Fed holds interest rates steady” – CNBC. https://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/29/fed-rate-decision-july-2026.html Accessed on 3 August 2026.

[6] “Europe’s fastest-growing economies in Q2 2026: Who led and who lagged?” – Euronews. https://www.euronews.com/business/2026/07/30/europes-fastest-growing-economies-in-q2-2026-who-led-and-who-lagged Accessed on 3 August 2026.

[7] “Economic Calendar” – Investing.com. https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/ Accessed on 3 August 2026.

[8] “Employment Situation news release schedule” – U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.htm Accessed on 3 August 2026.