[DAILY TRADING] EUR/USD Analysis 17 August 2026 – EUR/USD Tops 1.1590 as Retail Sales Miss, Fed Bets Fade

EUR/USD is trading near 1.1597 as of 13:50 (GMT+3) on 17 August 2026, according to the Vantage EUR/USD CFD chart, and that is roughly a two-month high for the euro to USD exchange rate. Three sessions of gains in a row is not nothing, and the bigger story here is not really about the euro at all. It is about a US Dollar that keeps finding new reasons to sit this one out.

This is a chart read and a macro check, not EUR/USD trading signals. Every level below carries a timestamp, not a recommendation.

What the EUR/USD Chart is Showing Today

On the 15-minute EUR/USD chart, the current candle opened at 1.15971, ran to a high of 1.15974, dipped to 1.15968, and last printed 1.15973. Flat on this candle, but that is the calm bit. Zoom out and the chart has been on a steady climb all week: up from around 1.1530 in the middle of last week, a first poke above 1.1590 on 14 August, a pullback toward 1.1565 the next day, and a grind back to Monday’s fresh high.

Both moving averages on the chart sit underneath price, in the order you want if you are looking for a clean trend: the 50-period average near 1.1578 above the 200-period average near 1.1552. That is a textbook bullish setup on this timeframe. The RSI panel on the TradingView setup used for this analysis had not finished loading a reading at the time of writing, so momentum here is read from price action and the averages rather than an oscillator.

Why the Dollar Keeps Giving Ground

If you are scanning EUR/USD news today, the standout headline is not the euro doing anything special. It is the US Dollar losing ground, again. July Retail Sales fell 0.6%, the sharpest monthly drop since May 2025, adding to a run of softer US prints that has traders paring back bets on a near-term Federal Reserve rate hike.¹ The US Dollar Index has been parked near the bottom of its monthly range as a result.²

The calendar does not let up. Fed minutes land Wednesday, 19 August, and the more interesting question is not whether the committee held, but how divided it was over hiking further.³ ECB President Christine Lagarde is also on the calendar for Wednesday, taking part in a “Global Economic Outlook” panel at the World Economic Forum in Geneva.⁵

The topic is global growth rather than eurozone policy specifically, but the trip carries its own headline risk: it lands amid ongoing speculation over whether Lagarde exits the ECB before her term ends in October 2027, a storyline that keeps resurfacing.⁶ Further out, the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium, 26 to 28 August, remains the bigger date on the calendar for anyone tracking a EUR/USD price forecast into September.⁴

EUR/USD Technical Analysis: Levels to Watch

These are the reference levels behind today’s eur/usd price forecast conversation, read straight off the chart above, not a signal to act on.

Levels read from the Vantage EUR/USD CFD chart (TradingView) as of 13:50 (GMT+3), 17 August 2026. Data indicative, for informational purposes only.

What to Watch Next

• FOMC Minutes, 19 August: The record of the last Fed decision, and how divided policymakers were over the case for hiking further.
• ECB’s Lagarde WEF Panel, 19 August: A “Global Economic Outlook” appearance in Geneva that is drawing attention more for ECB succession chatter than fresh policy signal, but still a headline-risk event for the euro.
• Jackson Hole Symposium, 26 to 28 August: The bigger venue for Fed signalling on the rate path, and a bigger swing factor for EUR/USD than this week’s data taken alone.
• 1.1600, ongoing: A break and hold above the round number opens scope for a fresh push into two-month-high territory. A rejection sends the pair back toward the 50-period average near 1.1578.

Given how fast EUR/USD has moved on single data prints this month, Stop Loss placement relative to 1.1578 and 1.1552 is worth a second look before Wednesday’s Fed minutes and Lagarde’s remarks land. A Stop Loss limits losses to a planned size. It does not make a headline-driven spike through a level any less real.

Leverage on EUR/USD CFDs runs both ways in a range this sensitive to data surprises, so treat leverage as a double-edged tool rather than a shortcut. Position sizing against account equity is worth checking again ahead of Wednesday, especially if other USD-linked positions are open and could move together in a risk-off session. For live pricing on this pair, the EUR/USD CFD product page has the current spread and contract specs.

For more EUR/USD news and USD-pair coverage this week, see: EUR/USD News | Federal Reserve News | ECB | Technical Analysis | Risk Management

RISK WARNING: CFDs are complex financial instruments and carry a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. You should ensure you fully understand the risks involved and carefully consider whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money before trading.

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References

[1] “Euro rallies to two-month high, eyes 1.1600 as Fed bets hit USD – FXStreet” https://www.fxstreet.com/news/euro-rallies-to-two-month-high-eyes-11600-as-usd-struggles-amid-receding-fed-hike-bets-202608170502 Accessed on 17 August 2026.

[2] “Euro Area Currency – Trading Economics” https://tradingeconomics.com/euro-area/currency Accessed on 17 August 2026.

[3] “Euro: Weak US Jobs Lift EUR Against US Dollar on Fed Repricing – Danske Bank via FXStreet” https://www.fxstreet.com/news/euro-weak-us-jobs-lift-eur-against-us-dollar-on-fed-repricing-danske-bank-202608100626 Accessed on 17 August 2026.

[4] “US Dollar Forecast August 2026 – USD Outlook and Key Levels – MTFX Group” https://www.mtfxgroup.com/fx-monthly-us/ Accessed on 17 August 2026.

[5] “ECB Schedule of Public Activities for 19 August 2026 – Insight EU Monitoring” https://ieu-monitoring.com/event/ecb-schedule-of-public-activities-for-19-august-2026 Accessed on 17 August 2026.

[6] “Christine Lagarde’s WEF Trip Set to Revive Talk of Early ECB Exit – Bloomberg” https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-08-14/lagarde-s-wef-trip-set-to-revive-talk-of-early-ecb-exit Accessed on 17 August 2026.