Week Ahead: War deadline & US inflation data

The Middle East War is now into its sixth week and will remain front and centre. We’ve had continued messaging from both sides to try and decipher, but in truth, no-one has any edge on how events will unfold. On Saturday, President Trump posted a message on Truth Social reminding Iran that it has two days to open the Strait of Hormuz or “all hell will reign down on them.” This was followed on Sunday morning by a message stating that power plants and bridges are likely targets on Tuesday.

US employment data on Friday showed that the US economy added more jobs than forecast in March following a weather and strike depressed February. The strong rebound masks a different picture under the hood, with a distinct lack of breadth and high degree of concentration for where jobs have been created, now over the past few years.  The Middle East conflict will likely pose challenges going forward for a job market which faces elevated geopolitical, economic and market worries, as price pressures rise and consumer spending is squeezed by higher energy costs.

This week, we’ll be watching to see if we get more market signals that we have entered a demand destruction stage, as yields fall while oil prices rise. That points to increased concerns around growth over inflation. It’s also the run-up to the start of quarterly earnings season. Among the first to report are Delta Air Lines with the focus on how it shapes its guidance. Exxon and Shell will also be reporting during the week. The major US stock market indices are all still below their 200-day SMAs, while the dollar is close to a key resistance zone again.

In Brief: Major Data Releases of the Week

Monday, 6 April 2026

ISM Services: March non-manufacturing ISM is forecast to move lower to 54.9 from the prior 56.1. Heightened geopolitical uncertainty and market volatility is expected to hurt consumer and business sentiment. On the flip side, cost pressures are likely to rise higher from already elevated prices.

Wednesday, 8 April 2026

RBNZ Meeting: Consensus expects rates will be kept on hold at 2.25%. Second round inflation effects are key for all central bankers at present. Will officials look through the impact of higher energy prices on near-term inflation? There are no updated economic forecasts.

FOMC Minutes: Focus will be on the range of views and which side of the dual mandate most officials are more concerned about. The meeting was deemed moderately hawkish but there is increased uncertainty amid the fog of war.

Thursday, 9 April 2026

US Core PCE Inflation: Widely viewed as the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge, is expected to remain broadly steady at 3%, in line with consensus.

Friday, 10 April 2026

US CPI: March inflation is forecast to show both the headline and core prints rising 0.3% m/m. But the annual headline print is expected to rise 3.2% from the prior 2.4% due to higher energy costs. Rising producer and factory input prices may impact core data in the months ahead. The consensus forecast is looking for March headline CPI inflation to jump to 0.9% m/m, up from 0.3% in February. That would push the annual rate from 2.4% to above 3%. Core CPI inflation is expected to remain largely unimpacted by the war for now, rising 0.3% m/m and 2.7% y/y.

Canada Jobs: The March figures come after a bleak previous report which showed nearly 84k jobs lost. Trade and tariff issues, along with the Middle East conflict pose ongoing risks to the creaking labour market. 

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