GYG Earnings Preview: Australian Growth Faces Its Next Big Test

Guzman y Gomez has walked away from its US expansion, upgraded Australian earnings guidance and rebounded from its 2026 lows. Ahead of Friday’s FY26 results, sales growth, margins and the A$26 resistance zone are firmly in focus.

Guzman y Gomez (ASX: GYG) reports its FY26 results on Friday, 21 August, at an important point in its growth story.

After abandoning its US expansion earlier this year, the focus has shifted firmly back to Australia. At the same time, GYG shares have recovered significantly from their April lows and recently challenged a long-running downtrend, adding a technical dimension to an already closely watched result.

Australia Is Now the Main Growth Story

Australia remains the core of GYG’s growth strategy.

At the half year, global network sales increased 18% to A$681.8 million, while management maintained plans to open 32 new Australian restaurants during FY26, including 23 drive-thru locations.

In May, GYG upgraded its FY26 Australia Segment underlying EBITDA guidance to approximately A$85 million, representing 29% growth on FY25.

Delivery against that target will be one of the clearest measures of whether rapid restaurant expansion is translating into stronger earnings.

US Exit Sharpens the Focus

GYG’s decision to exit the US marked a major change in strategy.

The company concluded that scaling its US operations would require substantially more time and capital, leading to the closure of its Chicago restaurants. The exit is expected to result in a US$30–40 million one-off FY26 P&L impact, with associated cash outflows capped at US$15 million.

Importantly, management said the exit would not affect the FY26 final dividend.

Removing the US operation leaves more attention and capital focused on Australia and GYG’s capital-light franchise operations across markets including Singapore and Japan.

Margins Matter as Expansion Accelerates

Restaurant openings alone won’t define the result. Profitability will be equally important.

At the half year, Australia’s underlying EBITDA represented 6.1% of network sales, compared with 5.7% in FY25.

Maintaining that improvement while continuing an aggressive store rollout would provide evidence that scale is flowing through to earnings rather than simply increasing the size of the network

Technical Analysis: A$26 Becomes the Key Test

GYG’s weekly chart is showing its most constructive setup in some time.

After falling from above A$40 and reaching lows around A$15–16, the shares have staged a significant recovery and recently moved above the long-term descending trendline. The stock has also recovered above its longer-term moving average, although that average is only beginning to flatten.

The immediate resistance zone sits around A$26–26.12. A sustained weekly break above this area, particularly alongside stronger volume, would strengthen the technical picture.

With Australian underlying EBITDA guidance around A$85 million, improving margins and the share price approaching a key technical level, Friday’s result arrives at an important point for GYG. FY27 guidance will be particularly important in setting expectations for the next stage of its Australian expansion.

Disclaimer: The material provided here has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Whilst it is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research we will not seek to take any advantage before providing it to our client. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information and therefore it shouldn’t be relied upon as such. Any research provided does not have regard to specific financial situations, needs or investment objectives. Vantage accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. Consequently, any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. We advise any readers of this material to seek professional advice where necessary. Without the approval of Vantage, reproduction or redistribution of this information isn’t permitted.