Week Ahead: NFP and Tech Earnings in Focus

The start of a new month brings with it the usual monthly US jobs report on the first Friday. Data will decide the next move by the Fed, which comes after a decidedly mixed reception to last week’s second FOMC meeting under new Chair Warsh. His distaste for forward guidance and central bank speak turned into a veritable ‘word salad’ last Wednesday. And yet it seems like markets are now hanging on any words uttered by other Fed officials when they speak about rates. That has seen money markets price in a modestly higher chance (66%) of a September rate hike towards the end of last week, as traders initially doubted the inflation-credibility of Warsh during his press conference.

Friday’s non-farm payrolls data will dictate if the dollar can resume its uptrend after its short-term breakdown post the Fed meeting. We note there is another jobs report and two more inflation ones before the next FOMC meeting in mid-September. With Warsh’s ambiguity around the reaction function, it is interesting that the Dollar Index is now back to levels seen at the June FOMC meeting, the first under the new Fed Chair. Speculative dollar longs, the biggest in five-years, appear to have been blind-sided so another squeeze should not be ruled out. We will also be watching any fallout from the joint intervention in USD/JPY, an historic event which should be meaningful as coordinated intervention usually turns the market for good. Odds for a September BoJ rate hike have also recently doubled, to now around 30%.

Stocks will be monitoring the backdraft from the Situational Awareness hedge fund collapse, after the 24-year of wunderkind fund manager realised what it feels like to take forced losses. Too much leverage, too little experience and the result is obvious to anyone who has been involved in markets and seen this story play out before. I predict we could be seeing this story made into a blockbuster film soon (Tom Holland or Timothy Chalamet as lead?) Double digit percentage moves and dispersion in tech names now seems to be the norm (AAPL -7%, AMZN +15%!), so watch out for Palantir, SpaceX and Sandisk earnings especially this week for more volatility. Seasonality this month and next is a possible headwind before the October to year-end period which is traditionally bullish for equities, particularly in midterm years.

In Brief: Major Data Releases of the Week

Monday, 3 August 2026

US ISM Manufacturing: July manufacturing activity is expected to rise to 54.0 from 53.3, while prices paid are predicted to ease to 70.0 from 73.0. Regional surveys signal continued expansion, which economists say is consistent with GDP growth of roughly 2-2.5%.

Wednesday, 5 August 2026

US ISM Services: Non-manufacturing services activity is forecast to rise to 54.3 from 54.0. Prices paid are predicted to ease to 65.0 from 67.7 suggesting inflationary pressures are cooling. Continued expansion in new orders should keep employment above 50.

Friday, 7 August 2026

US Non-Farm Payrolls: The headline is expected to print at 85k jobs added in July, above the prior 57k after April and May were revised down by a cumulative 74k. The unemployment rate is predicted to remain at 4.2%, and wage growth is also seen unchanged at 0.3% m/m and 3.5% y/y. The household survey points to downside risks though the data has been very noisy recently.

Canada Jobs: Consensus sees the headline print at 15k, modestly down from 18.2k in June. The jobless rate is expected to stay at 6.5%. Uncertainty surrounding trade pact negotiations remains a constant headwind clouding the outlook.

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