Week Ahead: Inflation, the Fed and the MOU

Markets will follow a familiar pattern of watching Middle East headlines about the US-Iran MOU while also digesting recent big risk events. Last week’s FOMC meeting comes top of the latter’s list, with Kevin Warsh’s debut meeting delivering a much shorter statement without forward guidance and a keen emphasis on price stability. The market’s read was a clear hawkish bias with rates priced 50bps higher in the US a year from now. But we note that half the FOMC still don’t think the Fed needs to hike, which means economic data releases will be hugely important going forward. Indeed, in this new Warsh era, we used the phrase in one of our dailies last week to ‘trade the data, not the Fed’.

We see the benchmark S&P 500 printed a doji weekly candle amid what has been an extremely uneven and sector-driven recent rally. Two major sectors, healthcare and consumer discretionary, are lower year-to-date, while tech is up around 30%. The same pattern is even clearer if we look at performance since the end of March, when the market bottomed after Iran-related fears peaked. Since then, tech is up even more, around 40%, while the three most defensive sectors are broadly around zero and energy is lower. In short, defensive sectors have gone nowhere or declined, while cyclicals and growth have delivered a very strong rally.

That implies that this is not just a broad equity rally. It is a highly concentrated and highly differentiated stock move. That also explains why sector dispersion is extremely large, and why country dispersion is even larger. The prime example of this is South Korea’s Kospi index which has soared roughly 140% in 2026, driven by two megacap $1 trillion market cap tech companies. PMI data could be useful in this regard more broadly, as these forward-looking indicators could highlight US resilience versus European sluggishness. Watch bond yields and if they move lower, as it could translate into a renewed rally in other assets, like gold.

In Brief: Major Data Releases of the Week

Tuesday, 23 June 2026

Global PMIs: Business confidence is expected to recover after the signing of the US-Iran agreement, but it could be too early to gauge the full impact. Worryingly high price pressures are predicted to cool and change the outlook going forward. Sluggish growth in services will be in focus.

Wednesday, 24 June 2026

Australia CPI: Headline inflation is forecast to at -0.3% m/m, tick up one-tenth to 4.3% y/y, with the trimmed mean rising to 3.5%. Key will be any evidence of second round effects from higher oil prices. Lower fuel prices should ultimately weigh on the headline print. The RBA watches the trimmed mean metric, and an inline reading should mean policymakers sit on their hands in August.

Thursday, 25 June 2026

Australia Jobs: The headline is seen rebounding to 45k from a decline of 18.6k previously, with the unemployment rate falling one-tenth to 4.4% April’s weakness was linked to abnormal seasonality as it captured the full Easter long weekend. The RBA appears less concerned about the labour market than inflation, with Governor Bullock stating that “the labour market is still a bit tight at the current unemployment rate”. Markets are currently pricing a 66% chance of a 25bps hike by year-end.

US Core PCE: The Fed’s favoured inflation gauge is predicted to remain steady at 0.4% m/m and rise to 3.4% y/y. These figures are for May so could be deemed stale as oil prices have fallen sharply in recent weeks. The hawkish Fed meeting under new Governor Warsh stressed price stability, as the FOMC has missed its inflation target for the past five years.

Friday, 26 June 2026

Tokyo CPI: This data is the forerunner to nationwide inflation. The headline is forecast to rise two-tenths to 1.6%, with ex-food and energy at 1.8%. Government subsidies have helped keep CPI below 2%, though the weaker yen could be a factor. The BoJ warned at its recent meeting that underlying inflation could rise above its price target.  

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