Week Ahead: Fed, BoJ, BoE headline amid ongoing volatility

After some consolidation in the dollar near recent lows over the past few quieter FX sessions, the calendar hots up this week with major central bank meetings and data, which will battle with the ongoing stream of tweets and rants coming out of Pennsylvania Avenue. We will no doubt get more volatility across markets as investors endeavour to make sense of competing drivers – from tariffs-on and tariff-off to DOGE to Europe’s coming-of-age and more hopeful Ukrainian peace news.

Wednesday brings a FOMC meeting and rate decision caught in the crosshairs of declining US exceptionalism, shaky stock markets and still relatively elevated price pressures. We have talked about stagflation in the US previously, and any mention of this in the Chair Powell’s press conference would grab the market’s attention. Rate setters are expected to remain patient, which is an inevitable consequence of the huge policy uncertainty introduced by the Trump administration. Will growth projections for 2025 growth, currently at 2.1% in the December SEP, be cut while core PCE inflation is raised? Does this then influence their rate cut profile with money markets currently on the fence between 50 or 75bps of cuts this year? The dollar will look on with bated breath as it clings on precariously to support in the low 103s.

The Bank of Japan and Bank of England will both also sit on their hands, with the former not least supported by the recent yen strength. A full hike is not priced in until the October BoJ meeting, with just half of a quarter point move for the June gathering. Guidance of any kind will see markets adjust and could push USD/JPY down through recent lows at 146.53. Key for the BoE and GBP will be if the Old Lady reinforces market pricing toward a rate cut at its next meeting in May. That date sees the release of the quarterly updated projections and reinforces the careful approach of rate reductions. We will also be on the watch for any speculation about what UK Chancellor Reeves plans to do at the Spring Budget in a few weeks.

Stock markets will again be one of the major gauges of sentiment after the broad-based US S&P 500 dipped into correction territory (off 10% from record highs). In contrast, other equity indices like the Hang Seng in Hong Kong and European markets have remained relatively buoyant. Growth concerns in the US have spurred rotation out of highly valued tech into defensive pockets of the market. Until policy uncertainty subsides, this theme is unlikely to reverse. Of course, gold has shined in this environment, as a hedge also against inflation. Central bank buying and the huge levels of government debt are likely to continue to boost bullion prices.

In Brief: major data releases of the week

Monday, 17 March 2025

– China data: Retail sales are expected to edge higher to a still soft 3.8% y/y. Industrial production is seen easing to 5.3% y/y due to weaker external demand. Fixed asset investment is predicted to remain muted at 3.2% y/y, with the private sector still a drag.

– US Retail Sales: Consensus expects the February figure to pick up to 0.7% from the -0.9% prior print. That was impacted by cold weather and the LA fires. Going forward, DOGE cuts and tariffs could impact jobs and squeeze spending power and activity.  

Tuesday, 18 March 2025

– Canada CPI: Core inflation has been above target while inflation expectations are edging higher. The BoC recently said it must assess downward pressures from a weak economy with upward pressures from higher costs. 

Wednesday, 19 March 2025

– Bank of Japan Meeting: No changes are likely to policy settings. The latest wage negotiations will be a focus with inflation set to overshoot the bank’s forecast. More clarity around tariff risks will likely see limited forward guidance. 

– FOMC Meeting: The current target range will be kept on hold at 4.25-4.50%. The statement and Chair Powell are expected to reiterate that they are in no rush to reduce rates. No major changes are seen with the updated dot plot and economic projections. The most recent December forecast saw two 25bps rate cut in 2025. 

Thursday, 20 March 2025

– UK Jobs: Expectations are for the unemployment rate to remain at 4.4% and weekly earnings (ex-bonus) at 5.9%. Pay growth is the key number for the BoE and is proving stubbornly sticky. Recent falling hiring intentions haven’t yet shown up in the data.

– Bank of England Meeting: The MPC will keep the Base Rate at 4.5%. Growth has slowed while inflation metrics remain elevated. The vote will be of interest after the previous 7-2 split. A “gradual” approach to policy easing is predicted, which currently equates to a 25bps cut once a quarter.

Disclaimer: The material provided here has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Whilst it is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research we will not seek to take any advantage before providing it to our client. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information and therefore it shouldn’t be relied upon as such. Any research provided does not have regard to specific financial situations, needs or investment objectives. Vantage accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. Consequently, any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. We advise any readers of this material to seek professional advice where necessary. Without the approval of Vantage, reproduction or redistribution of this information isn’t permitted.