NVIDIA Earnings Preview: A Momentum Giant Approaches a Turning Point

NVIDIA heads into this week’s earnings as not only the highest market value but also the most influential stock in global markets, and the stakes could not be higher. The company will report results post-market Wednesday 19 November 2025 (Thursday morning AU time), and the numbers expected from Wall Street underscore just how central NVIDIA has become to the AI economy.

Based on the guideline provided by Nvidia in the previous quarter, Wall Street is looking for 56% year-on-year revenue growth and a 50% surge in EPS for Q3 FY26—an expectation amplified by the company’s track record of consistent beats.

The company’s earnings trajectory shows a relentless climb. Over the past year, NVIDIA has beaten EPS estimates every quarter:

Source: TradingView

Revenue surprises follow the same pattern, with consistent beats and accelerating momentum. Forward-looking estimates project revenue soaring toward $61.9B in Q4 ’25, $66.1B in Q1 ’26, and $70.9B in Q2 ’26, setting up one of the strongest growth runways in the S&P 500.

Source: TradingView

Recent headwinds for AI giant:

Despite the bullish fundamentals, NVIDIA’s price action has turned cautious since late October. The stock has pulled back around 15% from its record high above $210.

This pullback was not driven by a single catalyst but by a convergence of valuation, cyclical and macro factors:

• Valuation fatigue: After NVIDIA surged more than 137% from its April lows, investors began trimming exposure as valuations stretched well beyond historical norms.

• Slower hyperscale spending: Citi’s updated hyperscale cap-ex forecasts signalled a softer AI infrastructure cycle ahead. Cloud providers may grow spending 35% in 2025 (down from 40% previously) and just 15% in 2026, raising questions about near-term demand intensity.

• Competition & margin pressure: AMD and Broadcom’s accelerating AI chip strategies introduced fresh concerns that NVIDIA’s dominance—while still overwhelming though no longer uncontested.

Nvidia Share Prices

1. Nvidia Price Target

According to TradingView, based on 57 Wall Street analysts’ forecast, the average 12-month price target sits at $235.78, implying nearly 24% upside from current levels. The most bullish forecast stretches to $389.73, while the most conservative sits at $100—underscoring how wide the distribution becomes when expectations run this high.

Source: TradingView

• Post-earnings price actions

Historical earnings reactions show a mixed pattern: over the past eight quarters, NVIDIA has averaged a modest +1.28% earnings-week gain, with a median of +0.53%. Crucially, quarters where the stock declined ahead of earnings—August ’24 and February ’25—often saw that weakness extend after the results, even when NVIDIA beat expectations. Today’s setup looks similar: a mild pre-earnings pullback, fading short-term momentum, and a cautious posture from traders.

Source: TradingView

• Technical Analysis

Technically, the signals are softening. RSI has drifted lower into a neutral band, showing buyers are hesitating. MACD has also begun curling downward, suggesting momentum loss. Short-term SMAs (20- and 50-day) remain upward-sloping but price has slipped beneath them, signalling a potential shift in mid-term trend. Still, the long-term structure remains intact, with the 200-day SMA rising steadily and providing a robust floor for any deeper correction.

After breaking below the April 2025 ascending trendline and is now testing support at $172.77—a level that aligns with previous consolidation zones. On the other hand, to expect a meaningful rebound from recent pullback, buyers would like to see prices stepping back above $193, where the current 20-day SMA sits.

Summary

NVIDIA enters earnings at a crossroads: the long-term AI megatrend remains firmly intact, but mid-term momentum is exposed if results merely meet—rather than exceed—sky-high expectations. This week’s report will serve as a critical checkpoint for whether NVIDIA can reignite its climb toward $212 and beyond, or whether the market takes a breather to reassess the world’s most influential AI stock.

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