Mixed data sees higher than expected inflation and unemployment

* US inflation hits bump on path to normalisation, jobless claims jump

* US 10-year Treasury reached three-month high, USD post fresh highs

* Crude rises close to 3% on Israel-Iran conflict fears and US storm

* UK economy seen treading water in August with focus on GDP

FX: USD posted a near seven week high later in the US session before paring gains. Price action had been choppy on the US data. Inflation ticked modestly higher but weekly initial jobless claims jumped to a 14-month high. Markets focused more on the latter, in line with the Fed’s pivot to the full employment side of their mandate. That saw the odds of a 25bps November rate cut increase to 86% from 80% before that data release. There is a 14% chance of no move.

EUR dipped to a new cycle low at 1.0899 before rebounding off the 50% mark of the April to October uptrend. The 100-day SMA is at 1.0933. A quarter point rate cut is fully priced in for next week’s ECB meeting, with a second virtually a given in December.

GBP slid near to a major Fib level at 1.2995 before paring losses. Next week is much busier for UK data with top tier jobs and wage figures, ahead of Wednesday’s CPI report.

USD/JPY edged lower as US Treasury yields also turned very marginally lower. A huge long-term retracement Fib level sits at 148.68. Above here is the 200-day SMA at 151.14 and 100-day SMA at 151.26. The key long-term highs from intervention in previous 2022 and 2023 Octobers sits at 151.94.

AUD stopped the five-day streak of selling. Metals nudged up adding modest support.  USD/CAD popped higher to 1.3774 before pulling back ahead of two important data releases.

US Stocks had relatively quiet range days with all the indices slightly lower on the day. The S&P 500 closed 0.21% lower to settle at 5,780. The tech-laden Nasdaq 100 lost 0.13% to finish at 20,241. The Dow settled down 0.14% at 42,454. Nvidia and Amazon were bright spots while investors awaited Tesla’s anticipated robotaxi reveal. It is the first big week for Q3 earnings in the US, with the major banks including JP Morgan, Wells Fargo and Blackrock all reporting on Friday. Wall Street analysts have scaled back their expectation for earnings growth. Q3’s growth rate is expected to fall to its lowest level in four quarters. Analysts expect a 4.7% increase in US earnings, down from nearly 8% in July.

Asian stocks: Futures are mixed. Asian stocks traded higher with record finishes on Wall Street helping the risk mood.  The ASX 200 moved higher with the mining sector boosted by Rio Tinto M&A news. The Nikkei 225 edged higher but a lack of driver remains. The Hang Seng and Shanghai Composite both rallied with the Hang Seng moving back above 21,000.

Gold stopped a run of six consecutive down days. Prices managed to trade above the 21-day SMA at $2623.

Day Ahead – UK GDP and Canada Jobs

Consensus is for another positive print for UK GDP in August. UK GDP flatlined in June and July, but in contrast to the last couple of years, it has at least not contracted since December 2023. For this release, the signals are not bad, even if sentiment took a bit of a hit in September. The BoE cut rates at the beginning of the month, which boosted spirits in the housing market. That should have provided a lift to construction. PMI data was also solid, while retail sales rose by a respectable 1.0%, amid better weather. Markets favour November as the next meeting for a rate cut.

The Canadian employment report for September and the BoC business outlook survey will attract special attention for loonie and BoC watchers. The headline reading is likely to see solid job growth and the jobless rate is expected to tick up one-tenth to 6.7%. Policymakers are concerned about unemployment and downside risks in the labour market.

Chart of the Day – USD/CAD due some consolidation

Pricing for the BoC’s decision on October 23 was reined in after the strong US jobs report. Market expectations shifted from over 80% chance of a 50bps cut to about 60% odds. Today’s data may swing the pendulum in either direction, but it may take significant surprises to materially impact. Fading Fed rate cuts and expectations of aggressive cuts by the BoC have fuelled the rally in the major.

Seven straight days of gains are pushing prices closer to overbought territory. A Fib level (61.8%) of the August/September downtrend sits at 1.3751 so resistance may be seen here. Next support is at the midpoint of the August down move at 1.3691. A bull target above is 1.3846, the top from April.

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