Gold Sets New Record While Stock Markets Face September Swoon

Gold, Nasdaq and EUR/USD Technical Outlook

Global markets opened September with caution as investors brace for a heavy run of US data. Attention is locked on Friday’s jobs report, widely expected to cement a 25bps Fed rate cut later this month. Commodities found stronger footing, with gold breaking to a new record above $3,500 and oil edging higher ahead of the OPEC+ meeting.

With jobs, inflation, and the Fed’s decision all packed into September, traders face one of the year’s most volatile stretches—historically the toughest month for equities. Against this backdrop, key assets are testing pivotal levels. Technical setups in gold, the Nasdaq 100, and EUR/USD offer a clearer view of how markets are positioning into this high-stakes month.

Gold (XAU/USD)

Gold’s breakout above $3,490 on Tuesday marked a major technical milestone, ending its long consolidation between $3,300 and $3,400. The daily chart shows prices riding a strong uptrend channel, now well above the 20- and 50-day moving averages.

Momentum remains firmly bullish: KDJ readings above 90 confirm overbought conditions, but no divergence is visible, suggesting the uptrend has room to extend. Resistance lies at $3,520, with a decisive break opening the path toward $3,600. On the downside, the $3,440 breakout zone is first support, followed by $3,373.

Beyond the charts, gold’s strength reflects haven demand amid Trump’s tariff battles and questions over Fed independence. While short-term pullbacks are possible, the broader setup favors more upside as long as price stays above $3,280.

Nasdaq (NAS100)

The Nasdaq 100 is consolidating after its record-breaking summer surge. Price action shows repeated failures to clear 23,900, highlighting waning momentum even as the rising channel remains intact.

The KDJ oscillator has rolled over from near-overbought levels, signaling caution. Immediate support stands at 23,200; a break lower could accelerate losses toward 22,900. On the topside, reclaiming 23,950 is critical to unlock the next leg higher toward 24,400.

Despite its broader bullish structure, seasonal weakness and looming macro catalysts—the jobs report, CPI, and Fed decision—pose risk of a pullback. Until clarity emerges, the index is likely to remain rangebound between 23,200 and 23,950.

EUR/USD

EUR/USD is grinding higher on dollar weakness, testing both trendline resistance near 1.1710 and the 50-day moving average at 1.1666.

A sustained break above 1.1720 would confirm a bullish breakout, targeting 1.1780 and 1.1810. Failure to hold above 1.1660 would undermine the setup, shifting focus back to 1.1520.

Momentum is improving: the KDJ fast line has crossed higher, hinting at follow-through potential if buying persists. For now, euro gains mirror dollar softness—but with Friday’s payrolls in focus, the pair remains highly sensitive to US data.

Conclusion

Markets are entering September on fragile footing. Gold has broken out to record highs, reflecting both technical momentum and heightened risk aversion. The Nasdaq is pausing after a strong run, with investors cautious ahead of key US data. The euro is attempting a technical breakout against the dollar, though its path will be determined by incoming US economic signals. With jobs, CPI, and the Fed decision all looming this month, volatility looks set to return in force.

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