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ASX 200 Suffers Risk Off Sentiment

Christopher Lewis

Christopher Lewis >

Market Analyst

Christopher Lewis

Christopher Lewis >

Market Analyst

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Christopher Lewis has been an analyst for 15 years in various markets around the world, including currencies, bonds, stocks, and commodities. A long-term staple of the analyst community, he has worked at various websites, brokers, and educational portals.

Vantage Updated Tue, 2024 August 6 07:23
  • Global selloff causes havoc in Australia.
  • Bonds continue to attract attention.
  • Most sectors are down, but healthcare seems buoyed.

Monday has been an absolutely brutal session for most of the trading world, and the ASX 200 will have been no different. In fact, the market plunged all the way down to the AU$7500 level before bouncing. Quite frankly, we are now out of the realm of trying to differentiate economies, and into the new realm of trying to get rid of any risk at all.

Australian equities will continue to be at the mercy of global indices and global markets, so therefore what you saw on Monday was something to keep in mind. Quite frankly, if the Americans and the Europeans continue to sell everything they can, it’s very difficult to imagine that Australia would be any different.

At this point, the AU$7500 level will be crucial, because as far as the technical analysis is concerned, the next major support level is all the way down to the AU$7000 level. As traders panic and try to get rid of any sign of risk, it means that bonds should do fairly well, be it in Australia or more specifically, the United States. A break down below the AU$7500 level could be assigned that the contagion of the carry trade unwind, and recessionary fears continues to cause major issues around the world.

Chart of ASX 200 taken from TradingView on 6 August 2024

Commonwealth Bank of Australia

There was selling across the board during the trading session on Monday, but CBA got particularly hammered, losing 5.72% during the session to drop down to the AU$124.89 level. It is worth noting that CBA is up a little over 22% for the year, so while it was a horrific day for the stock, the reality is that we are still very much in an uptrend. It does make a certain amount of sense that banks would suffer though, because CBA of course will be invested in multiple countries.

Chart of CBA taken from TradingView on 6 August 2024

Australia and New Zealand Group Holdings LTD

ANZ fared rather poorly as well, dropping 4.46% during the trading session, as you would have been very hard-pressed to find much in the way of winners in the ASX 200. At this point, ANZ also suffers the same problems that the CBA stock will, mainly that they may be underwater when it comes to some bonds. That being said, traders are in the mood to sell things first, and ask questions later and therefore I think financials continue to lag.

Chart of ANZ taken from TradingView on 6 August 2024

Resmed Inc

Resmed, the healthcare giant in Australia, gained 2.93% as traders look for some type of safety. This was a classic move into safer assets, and I do think that will continue to be what most traders look toward. That doesn’t mean that there will be a bounce when it comes to risk appetite in the short-term, but the reality is that the safety trade will continue to offer benefits. With a dividend of $0.20, it does make a certain amount of sense that the trading public may be looking to hide into corporations that are “needs”, and not necessarily “wants.” Adding a dividend of course only helps of the argument.

Chart of RMD taken from TradingView on 6 August 2024

FMG

Fortesque dropped as well, losing 1.87% for the session. The materials sector across the board was handed losses, although it’s worth noting that a few of the competitors for Fortesque did fairly well, as Rio Tinto lost only 6 basis points. Ultimately, it looks like anything that remotely looks like taking risk will continue to be shunned, and unfortunately for Fortesque, they didn’t get a pass.

Chart of FMG taken from TradingView on 6 August 2024

Disclaimer: The material provided here has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Whilst it is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research we will not seek to take any advantage before providing it to our client. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information and therefore it shouldn’t be relied upon as such. Any research provided does not have regard to specific financial situations, needs or investment objectives. Vantage accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. Consequently, any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. We advise any readers of this material to seek professional advice where necessary. Without the approval of Vantage, reproduction or redistribution of this information isn’t permitted.

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