Week Ahead: NFP (and Venezuela) to kick off 2026

We start the new year with markets watching top tier economic data and also geopolitical events in Venezuela. The surprise move by President Trump reminds us that shocks around geopolitical events are ever present in Trump 2.0 and headline havoc will continue to be a feature of markets this year too. While there is much uncertainty about leadership succession in Venezuela, which could impact oil prices, gold should retain an underlying bid due to safe haven flows, after its best 12-month performance in 46 years. If broader markets do swing into risk-off mode on expectations of further conflict, ‘buy on the sound of gunfire’ could be appropriate as markets rotate to risk on. Dollar price action will also be fascinating – does this unliteral move raise further questions about a weakening in international institutional pillars, and so an ongoing hit to the greenback’s safe haven role?

Energy markets should lead crude prices lower, after a possible initial spike higher on the prospect of US restrictions ending. Ultimately, regime change could see exports eventually grow towards three million barrels per day if sanctions are lifted and foreign investment returns. That said, it could take years to meaningfully boost Venezuelan output which has fallen dramatically over the past decades. In addition to possessing the world’s largest oil reserves, Venezuela boasts enormous gas deposits, the sixth largest globally, while holding the most significant gold reserves in Latin America amid numerous other critical minerals. We’ll be watching key major support in Brent around $58 (or $55 in WTI) for wider repercussions on the economy if these levels are broken.

The first Friday of the month brings the usual US monthly employment report. This will inform policymakers on the path to the next rate decision by the Fed at the end of the month on January 28. That said, confidence in these actual numbers may be weak due to low data quality, even if data collection has returned to a pre-shutdown state which wasn’t stellar to begin with, let’s not forget.

There aren’t many forward looking employment indicators to work with, but markets will watch this week’s usual employment data in the week of NFP which include JOLTS job openings and ADP private payrolls. Job postings surged in December which could push the former higher while payrolls are likely running at around 50k. Of course, we need to bear in mind that Fed Chair Powell recently stated that the official US job creation figures are likely overstated by about 60,000 jobs per month. This suggests the labour market is weaker than official reports indicate and could even be experiencing net job losses. 

In Brief: major data releases of the week

Monday, 5 January 2026

US ISM Manufacturing: December manufacturing activity is expected to tick up to 48.4 from 48.2, staying in sub-50 contractionary territory. New orders could signal softening demand while input costs remain elevated due to tariffs. 

Wednesday, 7 January 2026

Australia CPI: October inflation came in flat on the month, which was stronger than consensus expected. The November print should be positive, largely down to surging electricity prices. The more important quarterly inflation data is released at the end of the month.

Eurozone Inflation: Consensus sees the headline easing one-tenth to 2.0% and core unchanged at 2.4%. Lower services and fuel prices should see some disinflation. The ECB is expected to keep an eye on hotter-than-expected wage growth going forward.

US ISM Services: December non-manufacturing ISM is forecast to move lower to 52.2 from 52.6. New business is likely to cool further as rising input costs and tariff-induced higher prices hit confidence. 

Friday, 9 January 2026

US Non-Farm Payrolls: Consensus expects 55k jobs to be added, below the prior 64k. The previous few months data have been messy due to the government shutdown. The unemployment rate is predicted to tick one-tenth lower to 4.5%. Wage growth is seen picking up to 0.3%.

Canada Jobs: The headline figure is forecast to cool to a negative print after strength in recent months. The jobless rate is seen ticking up two-tenths to 6.7%. Trade-exposed sectors have stabilised at a lower level.