NFP Outlook: Could the numbers finally show the impact of Tariffs?

Key notes

• NFP report expectations: 130K jobs expected, unemployment rate to remain unchanged at 4.2% and +0.3% m/m earnings
• The leading indicators are pointing to a mixed NFP report
• The USD Index has started the week on a positive note, bouncing back from recent lows, NFP report could help set the tone for the next move.

NFP Preview: Cautious Optimism or Early Warning Signs?

As we head into this month’s much-anticipated Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) release, the U.S. labour market appears to be in a holding pattern. Despite rising global trade tensions tied to the paused “reciprocal tariffs,” the domestic job market hasn’t felt the full impact—yet.

This month’s NFP report, based on data collected weeks ago, may reflect only a slight slowdown in hiring. Many businesses are adopting a cautious “wait-and-see” stance amid tariff uncertainty, holding back major employment decisions.

Key Expectations:

• Headline NFP: +130K jobs
• Unemployment Rate: 4.2% (unchanged)
• Average Hourly Earnings: +0.3% m/m

Mixed Labour Signals

• Challenger Job Cuts surged to 275K, suggesting rising pressure on employment.
• Initial jobless claims remain steady at 224K, showing ongoing resilience.
• PMI employment index improved for a fourth time in five months but remains well below its highs.

Market Outlook:

The data presents a mixed picture—stability in jobless claims and services hiring, but sharp layoffs suggest underlying weakness. While not all signs point to a downturn, the risk of a softer NFP print appears to be increasing.

Technical outlook:

The US Dollar Index (DXY) slid through most of April before a modest rebound eased the oversold territory. A weaker-than-expected jobs report has historically been associated with short-term downward moves. While Fed policy remains influenced by labour data, tariff news and trade developments may also contribute to near-term volatility. Key support: 98.00 | Resistance: 100.25. Volatility may increase following the release. Historically, currency pairs such as GBPUSD and USDCAD have shown sensitivity to NFP surprises.